Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The downturn comes as Western sanctions expand and Ukrainian strikes increasingly disrupt energy infrastructure, adding to uncertainty for buyers and exporters alike.
Ukraine continues to pummel Russia’s energy sector, most notably the Russian oil production and transport.
And the effort is starting to clearly affect the bottomline of Russia’s energy business.
Russia’s income from selling oil abroad slipped further in November, underscoring mounting pressure on a sector central to the country’s economy.
New figures point to a combination of weaker prices, falling shipments and intensifying geopolitical risks.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s earnings from crude oil and refined product exports fell to $10.97 billion in November.
That was $3.59 billion lower than in the same month last year (a drop of nearly 25%) and marked the weakest level since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Black Sea disruption
The IEA pointed to a steep decline in shipments through a key route.
“Notably, total (Russia’s) seaborne exports through the Black Sea plunged by 42% to 910,000 bpd weighed down by recent Ukrainian attacks on dark fleet vessels and facilities,” it said according to Reuters.
Production also edged lower. Russian oil output fell to 9.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from 9.24 million bpd in October, the agency reported.
That level was roughly 500,000 bpd below Russia’s November production target under the OPEC+ agreement, which coordinates output among major oil-producing nations and their allies.
Regional contrast
While Russia’s output slipped, the IEA said Kazakhstan moved in the opposite direction.
The country’s crude supply rose by 120,000 bpd from October to 1.81 million bpd in November.
That figure stood about 330,000 bpd above Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ quota, highlighting uneven compliance and differing production trends across the region, according to the agency’s data.
Falling volumes
Reuters reported that the decline reflects both softer global prices and shrinking export volumes.
The Paris-based agency said the overall trend highlights growing strain on Russia’s energy industry, long seen as a backbone of state revenues.
The pressure has intensified as Washington increased sanctions in October, targeting major producers including Rosneft and Lukoil, moves intended to curb funds flowing to the Kremlin.
The IEA said Russia’s combined exports of crude and fuel dropped by about 400,000 barrels per day in November, falling to 6.9 million bpd. Buyers, the agency noted, were reassessing risks linked to tighter enforcement of sanctions.
Lower volumes were accompanied by a sharp fall in prices. Urals crude slid by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52, a drop that weighed heavily on export income, according to the agency’s assessment cited by Reuters.
Sources: International Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse, Reuters
