Kathrine Frich
Military planners in Canada have quietly explored an extreme scenario that has not been examined for generations.
The exercise, described as theoretical rather than operational, reflects growing concern about preparedness rather than expectations of conflict.
Officials stress the modelling does not signal a breakdown in relations with Washington, but instead highlights vulnerabilities under worst-case assumptions.
A rare exercise
According to The Globe and Mail, Canada’s military recently simulated a hypothetical invasion by the United States, the first such exercise in roughly 100 years.
Senior government sources told the newspaper the scenario was an internal model, not an actionable plan.
In the simulation, U.S. forces were assumed to seize key Canadian land and maritime positions within a week, and potentially within just two days.
Officials involved said Canada currently lacks the manpower and advanced weaponry to repel a full-scale American assault using conventional means.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.
Unconventional defence
As a result, planners focused on irregular methods of resistance rather than traditional warfare.
The model envisioned the use of small, mobile units and armed civilians carrying out ambushes, sabotage and surprise attacks, supported by drones.
One official told The Globe and Mail the concept drew inspiration from the tactics used by Afghan mujahideen against Soviet forces in the 1980s, and later by the Taliban against international coalition troops, including Canadian forces.
The objective of such an approach would be to inflict maximum casualties on occupying forces rather than hold territory.
Political reality
Officials emphasized that the scenario remains highly unlikely.
They noted that military cooperation between Canada and the United States is ongoing and stable, particularly through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).
The model assumed that any invasion would only follow a clear collapse of bilateral defence arrangements, including an end to joint airspace management.
Under such circumstances, Canada could seek support from nuclear-armed allies such as Britain or France.
A senior defence official said Canada would likely have no more than three months to prepare for a sea and land assault.
Broader context
Retired Major General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan, told the newspaper that anti-tank weapons and drones similar to those used by Ukraine could play a role in defence.
Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff, General Jenny Carignan, has previously outlined plans to build a volunteer reserve force of more than 400,000.
Officials said such forces could theoretically resist an occupation, though conscription is not being considered.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada should join the United States, comments Canadian Prime Minister Marc Carney and minister Dominique Leblanc have dismissed as attempts to create disruption.
Sources: The Globe and Mail, Digi24
