Camilla Jessen
Poll: Most independents unhappy with Trump performance.
As President Donald Trump prepares to tour the U.S. with weekly speeches ahead of the November midterm elections, fresh polling suggests Republicans may face an uphill fight.
The midterms, held every two years, determine which party controls the House and Senate and shape how effectively the president can advance his agenda.
Low independent support
A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows growing dissatisfaction among independent voters with Trump’s leadership one year into his second term.
According to reporting on that survey, only about one-third of independents approved of Trump’s job performance.
The poll found that a majority of independents believe the country is in a worse place now than before Trump took office, a reversal from sentiments earlier in his presidency.
This discontent spans multiple key issues. Trump posted sizable deficits on priorities such as the economy and foreign policy in the survey: more voters disapproved than approved of his handling of the economy, and concerns about his leadership extended across a range of topics.
Midterms outlook
The poll also suggested potential trouble for Republicans in hypothetical midterm matchups.
Voters were more likely to back Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans in a generic ballot scenario, and independents leaned toward the Democratic side by a significant margin.
Analysts say this trend matters because independent voters often swing races in closely contested districts, and their displeasure could shape outcomes in critical states and House seats this fall.
Poll details and context
The New York Times/Siena survey, conducted between January 12 and 17, surveyed a representative national sample and has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.
It showed a broader pattern of declining approval nationwide: aggregate polling across multiple sources indicates President Trump’s overall job approval remains underwater, with more voters disapproving than approving of his performance, particularly on economic and policy issues.
Other recent polls reinforce that trend, with many Americans expressing frustration over costs of living, economic performance, and aspects of Trump’s agenda — factors that could influence voter turnout and choice in November.
Sources: NYT/Siena poll analysis, Siena Research Institute, Politico
