Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The report even finds that Russia is in decline as a major global power.
The war in Ukraine is entering another year with no clear end in sight, even as battlefield lines shift only marginally. New assessments are questioning what Moscow has achieved for the price it has paid.
As diplomatic pressure builds around possible negotiations, analysts are revisiting the balance between Russia’s military effort and its broader national strength.
A new study released this week adds fresh detail to that debate, focusing on losses, territory and economic strain.
Heavy human toll
According to a Jan. 27 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia has suffered “more losses than any major power in any war since World War II” since launching its full-scale invasion in Feb. 2022.
The Washington-based think tank estimates nearly 1.2 million Russian casualties, including killed, wounded or missing troops.
Of those, as many as 325,000 soldiers are believed to have been killed, CSIS said.
70 meter gains per day
Despite repeated claims by President Vladimir Putin that Russian forces hold the initiative, the report says battlefield progress has remained slow and costly.
Near Pokrovsk, described as the most intense stretch of the front throughout 2025, Russian units advanced an average of about 70 meters per day, a pace CSIS says is slower than some of the fiercest battles of the last century.
The reasearchers note that since the start of 2024, Russian forces have gained less than 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory. CSIS said this underlines “the attritional nature of the war,” marked by severe losses and modest advances.
Declining as global power
Beyond the battlefield, the report portrays Russia as a “second- or third-rate economic power,” pointing to weakening manufacturing, labor shortages and shrinking capital.
It also notes that Russia has no companies among the world’s top 100 technology firms and continues to lag in fields such as artificial intelligence, limiting its ability to compete with the United States or China.
The findings come as the United States and its allies renew efforts to push toward an end to the conflict, even as Russia has yet to secure full control of the Donbas region after years of fighting.
Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Kyiv Independent
