Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It’s safe to say, that Russia’s demands are clashing with the Ukrainian’s ditto.
Ukraine’s path toward a possible peace deal is exposing deep public divisions and unresolved diplomatic hurdles. New survey data and recent negotiations underline how difficult any compromise could be, even as international pressure grows to end the war.
The debate centres on territory, security guarantees and the risk of renewed conflict. These issues have moved back to the forefront as talks resume and foreign capitals weigh their role.
Public opinion, political red lines and military realities are now colliding.
Divided public mood
A survey by the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv (KIIS) shows that around 40% of Ukrainians would accept giving up the Donbas region if Ukraine received binding security guarantees to prevent another Russian invasion.
The findings were published in a press release from KIIS and reported by EFE and cited by Agerpres.
At the same time, a clear majority remains opposed to military withdrawal. According to the same poll, 52% reject pulling Ukrainian troops out of Donbas, reflecting resistance to conceding territory still under Kyiv’s control.
Donbas includes the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, areas that have been central to the conflict since 2014 and remain symbolically and strategically important to Ukraine.
Territory at stake
Russia is seeking full control of Donbas as part of any peace agreement. Its forces currently hold about 80% of Donetsk and nearly all of Luhansk.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out surrendering the remaining areas held by Ukrainian forces, which have been heavily fortified since the first clashes with pro-Russian separatists more than a decade ago.
For Kyiv, those positions are seen as essential leverage and a line of defence against further advances.
Diplomatic pressure
Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators said after talks in Abu Dhabi on January 23 and 24 that Donbas remains the main obstacle to an agreement. Further discussions are expected this week.
Some Western media have reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has linked security guarantees for Ukraine to a full withdrawal from Donbas. Zelensky has said a U.S. guarantees document is ready to be signed, without detailing its terms.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate that guarantees could involve European troops, but no American forces. Moscow has repeatedly rejected any Western troop deployment, arguing that NATO’s expansion toward Russia’s borders triggered the war.
Sources: EFE, Agerpres, International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv (KIIS)
