Kathrine Frich
Fighting on the ground is shifting again as winter conditions fail to slow the war.
New battlefield data suggest momentum is changing.
Analysts are now asking how long Ukraine can hold key eastern regions.
Faster territorial gains
Russian forces advanced more rapidly into Ukraine in January, capturing nearly twice as much territory as in December, according to an AFP analysis based on data from the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project, two U.S.-based think tanks.
The analysis shows Russian troops seized about 481 square kilometers in January, compared with 244 square kilometers the previous month.
AFP said this marks one of the largest territorial gains recorded during a winter month since the invasion began in 2022.
The advance comes despite extremely low temperatures, which typically hinder large-scale offensive operations.
Pressure on Donbas
In eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, claimed by Moscow, Russian forces now control almost all of the Luhansk region and about 83% of Donetsk, according to the same data.
During ongoing diplomatic talks, Russia is demanding that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the remaining areas of Donetsk still under Kyiv’s control.
Ukrainian authorities have so far rejected that demand.
AFP notes that Donbas remains one of the most heavily fortified parts of the front line.
Other frontlines move
As in previous months, much of January’s Russian advance occurred outside Donbas.
Gains were recorded in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where Russian troops entered in the summer of 2025, and in the southern region of Zaporozhye.
In Zaporozhye, Russian forces are now less than 30 kilometers from the regional capital. S
maller advances were also reported in the Kharkiv region in the northeast and in Sumy, near Ukraine’s northern border.
Eighteen-month estimate
At the current pace, AFP calculations suggest Russia would need roughly 18 more months to fully seize Donbas.
Analysts caution, however, that attrition on the battlefield could lead to sudden changes in the speed of advances.
Russia currently occupies about 19.5% of Ukrainian territory, according to Kyiv and military observers.
Around one-third of that area had already been under Russian or pro-Russian control since 2014.
The figures include territories effectively controlled by Russia as well as areas claimed by Moscow, even where control remains contested.
Talks continue
Territory remains the main obstacle in negotiations held since January in the United Arab Emirates, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
A second round of U.S.-mediated trilateral talks will take place in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed. Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for “substantive discussions” but stressed that unresolved territorial issues and control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remain key disputes.
Sources: AFP, Institute for the Study of War, Hotnews.
