Camilla Jessen
World enters post–arms control era.
A cornerstone of Cold War–era arms control has quietly fallen away. With the expiration of the New START treaty, the world has entered unfamiliar territory.
For the first time in more than five decades, there is no binding agreement limiting the size of the two largest nuclear arsenals.
The expiration of New START ends the latest chapter in nuclear arms agreements between the United States and Russia that began in 1972. Under the treaty, both countries agreed to cap deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 each and limit the number of strategic delivery systems.
Experts are divided on whether the lapse will immediately trigger a new arms race. There is, however, broad agreement that the treaty no longer reflected modern nuclear realities, particularly China’s expanding arsenal.
Thomas Countryman, a former U.S. diplomat and senior arms control official, warned that the risk of nuclear weapon use is now at its highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
“That’s why we watch with alarm as this treaty expires,” he told CBC Radio’s The Current.
Trump downplays impact
President Donald Trump has dismissed the treaty’s expiration as unimportant, arguing it was flawed from the start.
In a social media post on Thursday, he called New START “a badly negotiated deal.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump wants a “new, improved and modernized treaty” and plans to keep discussions open with Russia. The administration has also stressed that any future agreement must include China.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said meaningful arms control in the 21st century is impossible without Beijing’s participation, citing China’s rapidly growing nuclear stockpile.
China factor looms
According to a Pentagon report released in December, China is on track to expand its arsenal from roughly 600 nuclear warheads to more than 1,000 by 2030. Analysts say that growth complicates efforts to revive arms limits.
Jim Walsh of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program questioned whether letting New START expire would help restrain China.
“It takes a lot longer to negotiate a treaty than it does to rip it up,” he told CBC News.
He warned that the consequences may not be immediate but could become clear over time.
Uncertain path ahead
Axios reported that the U.S. and Russia are exploring ways to continue observing New START limits informally, despite the treaty’s expiration. Even so, uncertainty remains.
Rose Gottemoeller, who negotiated New START for the Obama administration, told U.S. senators this week that the treaty is no longer the sole answer. She supported Trump’s goal of a broader agreement but said a short extension with Russia could have bought valuable time.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the treaty’s expiration was discussed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, adding that Russia would act based on its national interests, according to Reuters.
Sources: Reuters, CBC News, Axios, Pentagon
