Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The think tank does not believe that it is an actual counteroffensive, though.
Fresh battlefield footage suggests shifting dynamics along the front line in eastern Ukraine, where localized clashes are unfolding near a key regional boundary.
Recent strikes and counter-moves point to a fluid situation, with both sides contesting control in areas northwest of Hulyaipole.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its February 12, 2026, update on the war that newly released geolocated footage shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions east of the Haichur River.
The affected areas include locations east of and in southern Dobropillya, as well as north of Varvarivka, all situated northwest of Hulyaipole.
The footage indicates Ukrainian troops were likely holding these positions prior to the strikes. However, ISW says Kyiv’s forces appear to be conducting limited counterattacks aimed at reconnecting separated frontline units.
Conflicting battlefield claims
ISW reported that it began tracking localized Ukrainian counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhzhia regional border on February 9.
Initial commentary from Russian military bloggers described the activity as a wider Ukrainian “counteroffensive.”
However, Ukrainian military sources and some Russian bloggers later characterized the actions as limited in scope and geography.
Despite continued claims from pro-Kremlin commentators that Ukrainian forces are pressing north and northwest of Hulyaipole, several have acknowledged that poor frontline communications are clouding the operational picture.
Communications under strain
A senior NATO official told the BBC’s Russian Service on February 11 that part of Ukraine’s recent battlefield gains in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast may be linked to SpaceX’s efforts to limit Russian access to Starlink satellite terminals earlier this month.
A Kremlin-aligned Russian milblogger referred to “new complicating factors” affecting military communications, in apparent reference to both Starlink restrictions and Moscow’s decision to curb Telegram usage beginning on February 9.
Russian bloggers have warned that the combination of reduced Starlink access and Telegram blocks could significantly disrupt Russian command and control in the near term.
ISW suggests Ukrainian forces may be exploiting these communication gaps in their latest localized assaults.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), BBC’s Russian Service
