Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the Russian strategy probably has to do with Donald Trump.
Ahead of the new round of trilateral talks between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia in Geneva, Switzerland, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine overnight.
Ukraine’s Air Force said Moscow deployed 425 aerial weapons between February 16 and 17. According to the military, 396 of those were strike drones, including roughly 250 Shahed models, launched from multiple regions inside Russia and from occupied Crimea.
In addition, Russia fired 29 missiles. These included four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea, four Iskander-K cruise missiles and one Kh-59/69 cruise missile.
Pattern around talks
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the strike follows a pattern observed in recent months, with large-scale Russian attacks occurring shortly before or after high-level diplomatic meetings.
In an analysis of Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine from February 17 2025 to February 17 2026, ISW notes that Moscow has repeatedly launched barrages involving 400 to 700 drones and missiles around key negotiations, including talks in Alaska, Geneva, Moscow and Abu Dhabi.
The largest attack of the war, recorded in early September 2025, involved 823 aerial weapons.
Ukrainian officials warned last summer that Russia intended to scale up to more than 1,000 drones per day by autumn 2025.
However, ISW suggests the Kremlin may be limiting the size of attacks near negotiations to avoid undermining diplomatic efforts, particularly with U.S. President Donald Trump involved.
Moratorium concerns
The Geneva talks are expected to address a possible temporary halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.
Previous moratoriums in 2025 and early 2026 were followed by renewed large-scale attacks, after Russia rebuilt its stockpiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on February 16 that intelligence indicated Moscow was preparing another major combined strike.
Kyiv has warned that any pause in attacks could be used by Russia to regroup before launching further assaults.
Sources: Ukrainian Air Force statements; Ukrainian regional authorities, Institute for the Study of War
