Kathrine Frich
Diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine have intensified in recent months, with Washington pushing for a breakthrough before the U.S. midterm elections.
But behind closed doors, skepticism appears to be growing in Europe about whether Moscow is genuinely interested in peace.
Facade negotiations
Five European intelligence chiefs told Reuters that they see little chance of a meaningful deal this year, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that an agreement is “quite close.”
One senior intelligence official described the latest round of talks in Geneva as “facade negotiations.”
Four of the officials said they believe Moscow is using the dialogue primarily to push for sanctions relief and secure trade arrangements with the United States, rather than to end the fighting.
“Russia is not looking for a peace deal. They are pursuing their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one of the intelligence heads said.
Strategic goals unchanged
According to the officials, Moscow’s objectives include removing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and transforming Ukraine into what they called a “neutral” buffer state.
A second intelligence chief said Russia neither wants nor needs a rapid peace agreement and argued that its economy “is not on the verge of collapse.”
While none of the officials detailed their sources, they noted that their agencies rely on human intelligence, intercepted communications and other methods, and all consider Russia a top intelligence priority.
Territory not enough
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met again this week in Geneva under U.S. mediation, but made no visible progress on major issues, including territorial control.
Moscow is demanding that Kyiv withdraw from the remaining parts of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control, a condition Kyiv rejects.
One intelligence chief said that even if Russia secured full control of Donetsk, that alone would not achieve its broader political aims, particularly regarding Ukraine’s leadership.
Another warned that concessions over Donetsk could simply open the door to further Russian demands rather than end the war.
Limited leverage
One of the officials also questioned what he described as the West’s “very limited” negotiating leverage, including among European governments.
The U.S. delegation has been led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, neither of whom has formal diplomatic experience related to Russia or Ukraine.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly defended the administration’s efforts, saying President Trump and his team had done more than anyone to bring the parties to the table.
Economic angle
Two officials said Russia is seeking to split the talks into two tracks, one focused on the war and another on bilateral economic arrangements with Washington, including the lifting of sanctions.
Zelensky has said Ukrainian intelligence indicated discussions of potential cooperation agreements worth up to $12 trillion, allegedly proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
While one intelligence chief described Russia as a “resilient society” capable of enduring hardship, another warned that Moscow faces “very high” financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing limited access to capital markets and high borrowing costs.
Some analysts assess that Russia’s economy is hovering between stagnation and recession after modest growth of about 1% last year.
Sources: Reuters
