Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Orbán might get ousted from office for the first time in 16 years.
An election in Hungary is usually not something that is being covered in international news.
But the upcoming April 12 election is different.
The reason? The Kremlin-alligned Prime Minister, Victor Orbán, who have been in power in Hungary since 2010 (and 1998-2002 before that) might actually lose this years election.
And a new poll shows that the opposition is gathering momentumm
Growing gap
A February poll by Median, first reported on by news website hvg.hu, shows the centre-right opposition party Tisza extending its advantage over Orban’s ruling Fidesz among decided voters.
According to the survey, Tisza, lead by the more EU-alligned Peter Magyar, now commands 55% support among those certain to vote, compared with 35% for Fidesz.
That marks a sharp increase from January, when the opposition’s lead stood at 12 percentage points.
Across the full electorate, Tisza is backed by 42%, while Fidesz trails at 31%, based on interviews conducted between February 18 and 23.
Electoral math
Beyond the two dominant parties, only the far-right Our Homeland party appears close to entering parliament, polling at 6% among decided voters. Hungary’s 5% threshold is required to secure seats.
The 199-seat parliament is made up of 93 lawmakers elected from national party lists and 106 chosen in individual constituencies.
High stakes race
Orban is seeking another term amid economic stagnation and mounting political pressure. Despite announcing a series of voter-friendly measures, his party appears to be losing support.
Tisza, founded in 2024 and led by former government insider Peter Magyar, has emerged as the first serious challenger to Fidesz in a parliamentary election in more than a decade.
Median researchers said Tisza “has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer.”
Sources: Reuters, hvg.hu, Median
