Kathrine Frich
Moscow condemned the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and expressed diplomatic support for Tehran. Nothing more followed.
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the February 28 attacks and hundreds of targets were struck across the country, many expected a clearer response from Russia. But according to an analysis by the Kyiv Independent, the Kremlin limited itself to statements. No military measures were announced.
That is notable given how closely the two countries have cooperated in recent years.
A Partnership With Clear Limits
Iran has supplied drones and ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow has sold advanced weapons systems to Tehran. After the twelve-day war with Israel in the summer of 2025, during which Iran’s air defenses were largely destroyed, Iran was reported to have purchased 500 Verba man-portable air defense systems and 2,500 air defense missiles from Russia.
These are tangible transactions. Cargo ships docking at night, military transport aircraft crossing the Caspian Sea. The cooperation is visible in logistics.
But as Iran now faces military pressure, Russia has not gone beyond words.
Olli Ruohomaki of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs told the Kyiv Independent that he does not see Moscow coming to Iran’s rescue. He described the relationship as largely transactional and noted that Russia is deeply engaged in Ukraine.
Occupied Elsewhere
The war in Ukraine ties up Russian resources. According to the analysis, Russia now produces its own versions of the Iranian Shahed drones and is therefore less dependent on new deliveries.
Julian G. Waller of George Washington University told the Kyiv Independent that the relationship is not a defense alliance and that it is unlikely Russia would intervene militarily to save Iran in a decisive moment.
At the same time, Iran has increasingly leaned on Moscow for support, both economically and in terms of security, under the pressure of sanctions and domestic unrest.
Support Behind the Scenes
The analysis describes how Russia’s role has been more visible within Iran’s internal security apparatus. During the large-scale protests over the winter, the internet was shut down and GPS and satellite signals were disrupted.
Arash Beidollahkhani of the University of Manchester told the Kyiv Independent that Russian technology and expertise were evident in the background, particularly in electronic warfare and surveillance. Since the 2010s, Moscow has supplied signals intelligence systems and training in handling civil unrest.
The two countries have also cooperated in circumventing Western sanctions through alternative transport routes and a so-called shadow fleet for oil exports.
National Interests Prevail
According to the analysis, Russia’s low-profile response may be linked to broader strategic considerations. Richard Betts of Columbia University told the Kyiv Independent that Vladimir Putin may have avoided a stronger reaction in order not to antagonize US President Donald Trump, who is attempting to reach a settlement on Ukraine.
There are also energy considerations. An Iran reintegrated into the global economy and selling gas to Europe could directly compete with Russian supplies.
According to the Kyiv Independent’s analysis, the events show that the relationship between Moscow and Tehran is close, but not without limits. When the crisis came, Russia chose to stick to diplomatic statements.
Source: Kyiv Independent
