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China is set to unveil its next five-year plan at its annual parliamentary meeting starting Thursday, outlining economic priorities and sectors likely to receive policy backing.
While the document typically lacks detailed implementation measures, it serves as a blueprint for Beijing’s policy direction and signals how the world’s largest commodities consumer plans to steer demand.
From energy to agriculture, analysts are watching closely for clues about how China will balance growth, climate goals, and industrial strategy, reports Reuters
Climate and power priorities
Observers expect continued expansion of renewable energy, particularly in transmission infrastructure and measures to better integrate green power into the national grid.
China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 but has not specified the level at which emissions will crest.
Analysts do not anticipate a strong push against coal, despite record construction of coal-fired plants under the current plan following power shortages in 2021.
“In a time when a large part of China’s population is struggling financially, making an entire industry disappear might entail a political cost that Beijing is not yet willing to shoulder,” Johanna Krebs of the Berlin-based MERICS think tank wrote in a research note.
Support for alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel and green hydrogen is also expected to remain on the agenda.
Oil, gas and peak demand
China’s domestic oil output reached a record high last year after a seven-year campaign to reverse declining production. With output expected to peak again, analysts will look for signals on Beijing’s next steps.
Policymakers may also clarify how they view the timing of peak oil consumption. In December, China’s National Energy Administration called for pushing toward a consumption peak during the upcoming plan period.
Natural gas is likely to retain priority status, with researchers at Sinopec and CNPC forecasting average annual growth of about 5% over the next cycle.
Critical minerals and overcapacity
China’s dominance in rare earths remains a strategic asset, especially as the U.S. and allies seek alternative supply chains.
The current five-year plan makes limited mention of rare earths, but analysts expect renewed focus on domestic production, stockpiling and potential policy adjustments.
In February, authorities publicly discussed studying a commercial copper stockpiling system, following proposals last October to expand reserves.
Overcapacity in industries such as steel and copper is also under scrutiny. Policymakers may introduce stricter controls on new production, potentially linking output to carbon targets as steel is now included in the national carbon market.
Food security concerns
Food security is another key theme, as China seeks to modernize agriculture and reduce reliance on imports.
Analysts expect renewed efforts to improve productivity and expand the use of technology.
The future of genetically modified crops remains uncertain, with adoption limited by high costs and resistance from farmers and consumers.
Officials may also signal plans to reduce dependence on imported soybeans and other grains by altering animal feed practices or diversifying supply sources.
Sources: Reuters
