Kenneth Glad
A narrow maritime corridor in the Gulf is once again at the centre of global market anxiety.
As conflict spreads across parts of the Middle East, energy traders and policymakers are watching closely for signs that supply disruptions could ripple through the world economy.
The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf with international shipping lanes, carries roughly a fifth of global oil shipments. Any threat to the route tends to ripple quickly through crude and gas prices, as well as shipping and insurance costs.
That sensitivity is already visible in markets. Brent crude climbed toward $89 a barrel this week, the Daily Mail reported, after trading for much of the year around $60 to $65. During the 2022 energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prices briefly surged above $120.
The warning from Doha adds another layer of concern.
According to the Financial Times, Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said prices could surge far higher if the conflict persists, warning that oil might exceed $150 a barrel and “bring down the economies of the world”.
Fragile route, global impact
The Gulf’s energy role goes far beyond crude oil. Qatar is the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, supplying roughly a fifth of global LNG trade and playing a crucial role in energy markets across Asia and Europe.
The Daily Mail reported that an Iranian drone strike earlier this week hit Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas facility, adding to fears of wider disruption to production and exports.
Shipping insurers and freight operators are also monitoring the situation closely, as higher risks in the region can rapidly drive up tanker insurance premiums and transport costs for fuel and other commodities.
Even small interruptions matter.
Inflation concerns return
In comments reported by the Financial Times, al-Kaabi warned the economic effects would reach well beyond the energy sector.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher.”
He added: “There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
Rising fuel costs can quickly push up transport prices and fertilizer production, which in turn affects food supply chains and consumer prices.
Doha’s caution
The Qatari minister also warned that supply disruptions could linger even if fighting subsides.
He told the Financial Times that production cycles may take weeks or months to normalise and said more Gulf producers could soon declare force majeure if exports remain under pressure.
“In addition to energy, there will be a halt on all other trade in between the [Gulf] and the world, which will have a significant effect on the economies of the [Gulf] and all the trading partners around the world.”
For markets already sensitive to inflation, the risk is clear: prolonged instability in the Gulf could quickly turn a regional conflict into a global economic shock.
Sources: Financial Times, Daily Mail
