Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The momentum on battlefield seems to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor.
Recent Ukrainian battlefield actions are sending ripple effects across several parts of the frontline. Military analysts say these moves are forcing Moscow to shift troops and rethink plans.
The developments come as both sides prepare for a potentially decisive phase of fighting later in 2026.
Ukrainian counterattacks in multiple areas appear to be stretching Russian units already committed across a long and demanding front.
Pressure across fronts
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian operations near Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole and Zaporizhia are creating wider operational consequences for Russian forces.
The Washington-based think tank reports that Russia has already had to draw on parts of its operational reserve to sustain fighting in other sectors.
ISW noted that such reinforcements likely include troops sent to the Kupyansk direction, where Ukrainian forces have recently carried out several successful counterattacks.
Elite units shifted
The think tank also reported signs that Russian command redeployed elite airborne and naval infantry units away from Donetsk Oblast.
ISW assessed on March 7 that these units were moved laterally to southern positions, likely to respond to Ukrainian advances near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole.
Such shifts highlight the limits of Russia’s available manpower and suggest commanders are being forced to redistribute forces to stabilize the front.
Offensive plans at risk
The redeployment could also complicate Moscow’s expected Spring–Summer 2026 offensive campaign, analysts say.
Moving forces from Donetsk to Zaporizhia may weaken preparations for attacks aimed at Ukraine’s so-called Fortress Belt defensive lines.
ISW said the need to respond to relatively small Ukrainian counterattacks shows Russian forces remain stretched even as they prepare for a larger offensive push.
Signs of strain
The situation echoes earlier battlefield pressures seen in November 2025, when Ukrainian attacks near Dobropillya forced Russian units to divert resources in nearby sectors.
At the time, elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army operating toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya were reportedly strained by the fighting.
ISW say these recurring disruptions suggest Russia may struggle to sustain major offensive operations while managing tactical setbacks along the front.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
