Moscow’s own assessment of losses has been revealed — and it is higher than even what Ukraine suggests

In January 2026, the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a study in which researchers assessed Russian casualties in the war in Ukraine at approximately 1.2 million killed and wounded.

The Kremlin was quick to dismiss the study. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “I don’t think any such reports can or should be viewed as reliable information,” The Moscow Times reported at the time.

Russia has not disclosed battlefield losses for years, with September 2022 being the last official update. At that time, the Kremlin said that close to 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the war.

What Ukraine says

Multiple estimates of Russian casualties center around the 1.2 million stated by CSIS.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which updates the estimated Russian losses daily, total Russian casualties are approximately 1.276 million as of March 11, 2026.

But even that number might be too low — at least according to the Russians’ own estimates.

1,315,000 — and counting

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine’s intelligence agencies had gained access to classified Russian assessments of casualties since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

According to Zelensky, the documents indicate that 1,315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded during the war.

The president shared the figure on social media after meeting the newly appointed head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Oleh Ivashchenko.

“We have reason to believe that these figures are understated,” Zelensky added.

The claims have not been independently verified.

Two to one in killed-to-wounded ratio

Zelensky also said Ukrainian intelligence observed a shift in casualty patterns among Russian forces.

“A change has been recorded in the killed-to-wounded ratio among Russian forces: out of 100 percent of losses, 62 percent are killed and 38 percent wounded,” he said.

The Ukrainian leader did not clarify which overall loss total the ratio refers to.

Sources: BBC, Mediazona, statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky, The Kyiv Independent, The Moscow Times, Center for Strategic and International Studies

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation