Kathrine Frich
The conflict shows few signs of ending.
Despite diplomatic efforts and ongoing talks about possible ceasefires, the war continues to grind on with heavy losses on both sides.
Now a former senior US official involved in Ukraine diplomacy says the Kremlin may have only one realistic path to ending the conflict.
Warning to the White House
Retired US General Keith Kellogg, who previously served as a special envoy for Ukraine, warned that Vladimir Putin must accept he cannot win the war.
Speaking in an interview with Japan’s NHK television cited by Ziare, Kellogg said peace would require the Russian leader to acknowledge that Russia cannot seize more Ukrainian territory.
“Putin must realize that he will not get any more Ukrainian territory and recognize Russia’s inability to win the war,” Kellogg said.
Kellogg, who attended the Tokyo 2026 Conference organized by the Genron NPO think tank, served as a US envoy involved in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv until December.
Heavy losses mount
According to Kellogg, Russia has suffered significant losses since launching the invasion.
He estimated total Russian casualties, including both those killed and seriously wounded, could range between 1.2 million and 1.4 million soldiers.
Kellogg also argued that the Russian leader is aware of the scale of these losses and the potential consequences.
Possible ceasefire scenario
The former envoy suggested the most realistic path to peace could involve freezing the conflict along the current front lines.
Under such a scenario, both sides would stop fighting without a final settlement over territory.
However, Kellogg said Russia currently shows little interest in such an arrangement.
“However, it is Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who does not want a ceasefire and demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donbas, while Ukraine is not ready to give up the territories it controls,” he said.
Criticism of Trump strategy
In a separate interview with the US broadcaster PBS, Kellogg also criticised how the conflict has sometimes been approached politically.
He suggested negotiations were sometimes framed too much in economic terms rather than as a military conflict.
“It’s not a business; it’s a war,” Kellogg said.
According to the retired general, ending the conflict ultimately depends on political will rather than purely economic considerations.
Putin’s dilemma
Kellogg argued that Putin faces a difficult situation with few clear options.
He suggested the Russian president may fear political consequences similar to those faced by Tsar Nicholas II after Russia’s collapse during World War I.
“Putin is worried that he could become another Nicholas II,” Kellogg said.
Sources: Ziare.com, NHK, PBS
