Kathrine Frich
One area often mentioned in discussions is the eastern city of Narva.
Estonia, which borders Russia and is a member of NATO and the European Union, has frequently warned about potential pressure or influence campaigns coming from its powerful neighbour.
One area often mentioned in discussions is the eastern city of Narva, located directly on the Russian border and home to a large Russian-speaking population.
Because of its demographics and location, the city has sometimes been viewed by analysts as vulnerable to political influence from Moscow.
Now Estonian authorities say a new online campaign may be attempting to stir unrest in the region.
Calls for a “Narva People’s Republic”
According to the German newspaper Bild cited by United24media, Estonian security officials are investigating a wave of pro-Russian social media messages promoting the creation of a so-called “Narva People’s Republic.”
The posts have appeared across Russian-language platforms such as Telegram and VKontakte in recent weeks.
They call for the establishment of a separatist entity in Narva, a city of roughly 50,000 residents located on Estonia’s eastern border with Russia.
Around 90 percent of Narva’s population speaks Russian, making the city a frequent focus of influence operations targeting Russian-speaking communities.
Messages urge action
Some of the messages circulating online encourage supporters to distribute leaflets, carry out sabotage and even arm themselves.
Posts urge residents to proclaim the “Narva People’s Republic” and defend it against Estonia’s government, allegedly with support from Russian forces.
Slogans appearing in the campaign include “Russians, we are not alone!” and “From Narva to Püssi stretches Russian land.”
Images shared online show maps and flags of the proposed entity, while masked individuals appear in videos encouraging people to “act together.”
Officials call it disinformation
Estonian authorities say the activity bears the hallmarks of an influence campaign rather than a genuine grassroots movement.
Marta Tuule, spokesperson for Estonia’s security police agency KAPO, said the messages appear designed to create confusion and undermine public confidence.
“Such techniques have already been used in Estonia and other countries,” Tuule said.
“It is a simple and inexpensive method to create insecurity and intimidate society.”
She warned that anyone participating in the campaign could face legal consequences.
“This is a provocation, and participation in it may have criminal consequences,” Tuule said.
Fears of a wider strategy
An Estonian intelligence source told Bild that the timing of the campaign may not be accidental.
“It is no coincidence that this campaign is starting now, when the world’s attention is turning toward Iran,” the source said.
Officials say it is still unclear what the ultimate goal of the messaging may be.
However, they warn that similar narratives appeared before Russia-backed separatist regions were declared in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Sources: United24Media, Bild, Estonian Security Police (KAPO)
