Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is amassing 20,000 troops for a new offensive, but it is unlikely to make any difference.
Russia may be preparing to draw on strategic reserves as its campaign in eastern Ukraine struggles to meet expectations, according to Ukrainian intelligence officials.
The move comes amid mounting pressure on Moscow’s forces, which have faced persistent setbacks and rising losses in recent months.
Kyiv says the shift reflects deeper structural challenges in Russia’s military approach.
Mounting pressure
Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR), told the Financial Times on April 16 that Moscow could deploy about 20,000 additional troops from its reserves to southeastern Ukraine.
He said Russia currently has around 680,000 personnel in the theater and is aiming to seize the entire Donbas region by September 2026, according to the Financial Times.
The assessment aligns with reports from Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, who said reserve units are already being sent toward Oleksandrivka and Zaporizhzhia.
Strained strategy
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) these deployments appear to be taking place away from Russia’s main operational focus in the Donetsk region, suggesting a broader attempt to stabilize multiple fronts.
ISW points to a combination of rising casualty rates and declining recruitment as key challenges undermining Russia’s reliance on large-scale assault tactics.
Such tactics, often involving repeated waves of attacks, have become harder to sustain under current conditions.
Deadlines missed
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 10 that Russian forces had aimed to capture Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026.
While Pokrovsk has reportedly been taken, advances toward the other two cities have fallen short.
Repeated missed deadlines have highlighted what Kyiv describes as overly ambitious planning by Russian commanders.
Limited impact
Even if deployed, the additional 20,000 soldiers are unlikely to significantly change battlefield dynamics.
Ukrainian officials note that this figure is smaller than Russia’s estimated monthly casualties, limiting its strategic effect.
The development underscores the continuing difficulties facing Moscow as the war grinds on.
Sources: Financial Times, Ukrainian GUR, statements by Volodymyr Zelensky, Institute for the Study of War
