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The International Monetary Fund praises the National Bank of Ukraine for keeping inflation under control.
Ukraine’s economy is expected to continue growing, even as the war and infrastructure damage weigh heavily on its outlook.
The International Monetary Fund said in April 2026 that Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 2% in 2026, unchanged from its earlier estimate for 2025, the Kyiv Post reported.
The announcement came during the IMF Spring Meetings, according to a press release on its Regional Economic Outlook for Europe.
This figure is slightly higher than the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) latest estimate. In February, the central bank revised its 2026 forecast down to 1.8% from 2.2%.
Nearly double the forecast for Russia
Even though Ukraine is suffering from its fifth year of war since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian economy is expected to outpace the Russian economy in terms of growth.
On April 14, the Russian news agency Interfax reported that the IMF had raised its forecast for GDP growth in Russia to 1.1%, up from 0.8%.
The reason for the change in the forecast is the global energy supply turmoil, which has seen oil prices skyrocket, increasing Russian revenue from oil exports.
War impact grows
According to the NBU, Russia’s attacks have severely damaged energy infrastructure and disrupted supply chains. The electricity shortfall reached about 7% in late 2025.
The IMF now assumes the war will last longer than previously expected. This marks a shift from its October 2025 outlook, which anticipated before 2026.
As a result, growth projections have been lowered. The IMF now expects 3.5% growth in 2027 and 4.2% in 2028, down from earlier, more optimistic forecasts.
Inflation challenge
Inflation is projected at 6.1% in 2026, rising to 7.7% in 2027 before easing again. The IMF has not yet published detailed reasoning behind these figures.
IMF European Department Director Alfred Kammer praised Ukraine’s central bank for managing price pressures during wartime.
“They did an incredibly good job in keeping inflation under control in those circumstances,” Kammer said, responding to a question from the Kyiv Post.
Sources: IMF, National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv Post, Interfax
