Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Do you think that the Russian top general actually believe what he says, or that he is too afraid to tell Putin the truth?
Fighting continues to intensify in eastern Ukraine as both sides report gains and losses along key front lines, and if fresh claims from the Russian top general is to be believed, the Russian forces are doing well.
According to Reuters, Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, said his forces had captured 1,700 square kilometres and 80 settlements since the start of the year – a number that has not been independently verified and does not allign with independent estimates.
Moscow has long aimed to seize the entire Donbas region, where Ukrainian troops have been pushed back toward a defensive line of major cities after prolonged fighting.
Battlefield data shows grinding halt
On March 31, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released and update on the war showing a very different situation than the fresh claims from Gerasimov.
Looking at the evidence, the think tank assesses that Russia gained 363.3 km2 in January 2026, 152.4 km2 in February and only 5.46 km2 in March.
Those numbers combined adds up to 521.16 km2 – less than a third of what Gerasimov claims.
Note that it has been three weeks since the report from the ISW, meaning the actual territory gained by Russian forces in 2026 could be more now, but it is highly unlikely that Russia has been able to gain 1200 km2 in a matter of weeks, when they haven’t been able to gain more than 521 km2 in three months.
Clear signs of struggles
The report from the ISW compare the Russian territorial gains from October 2024 to March 2025 and October 2025 to March 2026.
According to the numbers, Russia gained nearly 1000 km2 in the first three months of 2025, meaning the Russian advances has been nearly halved a year later.
According to Reuters, pro-Ukrainian maps show that Russia is currently controlling 116,963 km2 of Ukraine’s territory, equal to 19.35% of its total landmass.
Sources: Reuters, Institute for the Study of War
