Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia’s Chief of General Staff said yesterday, that Russian forces had seized 1700 km2 in 2026 – but the real number is more likely a third of that.
Russia’s top military officer has again reported sweeping gains in Ukraine, painting a picture that sharply contrasts with independent assessments.
On Tuesday, Reuters cited the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, as saying Russian forces had captured more than 1,700 square kilometers and 80 settlements since early 2026, including all of the Luhansk region.
He also claimed that 700 square kilometers and 34 settlements were taken in March and April alone.
The claims have not been independently verified, and they do not match data from the battlefield at all.
Battlefield data shows grinding halt
On March 31, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an update on the war showing a very different situation from the fresh claims made by Gerasimov.
Looking at the evidence, the think tank assesses that Russia gained 363.3 km² in January 2026, 152.4 km² in February, and only 5.46 km² in March.
Those numbers combined add up to 521.16 km² — less than a third of what Gerasimov claims.
Note that it has been three weeks since the ISW report, meaning the actual territory gained by Russian forces in 2026 could now be higher. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia has been able to gain 1,200 km² in a matter of weeks when it has not been able to gain more than 521 km² in three months.
Mil-bloggers slam “beautiful report”
ISW notes in its April 21 update on the war that even pro-Russian military bloggers have questioned official claims, particularly regarding advances near Kupyansk and other contested areas.
Some have accused commanders of submitting overly optimistic battlefield reports, referred to as “beautiful reports” by the blogger community.
These criticisms include allegations of counting settlements as captured without verification and presenting inflated progress to senior leadership.
Gerasimov’s repeated references to previously claimed gains as recent developments have also drawn scrutiny, with analysts suggesting this approach creates a misleading sense of momentum.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Reuters
