Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Do you think, he knows the number is far off?
A growing gap has emerged between official Russian statements and independent battlefield assessments.
On Tuesday, Reuters cited the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, as saying Russian forces had captured more than 1,700 square kilometers and 80 settlements since early 2026, including all of the Luhansk region.
The claims have not been independently verified, and they do not match data from the battlefield at all.
Even Russian data doesn’t support claims
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), even the broadest interpretation of Russian advances between January 1 and April 21 amounts to about 715 square kilometers – less than half of the claims from Gerasimov.
This figure includes both confirmed movements and unverified claims reported by Russian sources.
No publicly available Russian map appears to support the larger figure, with analysts highlighting the absence of any battlefield layout that reflects such extensive gains.
Grinding halt
On March 31, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an update on the war showing a very different situation from the fresh claims made by Gerasimov.
Looking at the evidence, the think tank assesses that Russia gained 363.3 km² in January 2026, 152.4 km² in February, and only 5.46 km² in March.
Those numbers combined add up to 521.16 km² — less than a third of what Gerasimov claims.
Note that it has been three weeks since the ISW report, meaning the actual territory gained by Russian forces in 2026 could now be higher. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia has been able to gain 1,200 km² in a matter of weeks when it has not been able to gain more than 521 km² in three months.
Disputed locations
Some of the claims also involve locations significantly beyond previously reported frontlines. ISW reports that several settlements mentioned by Gerasimov lie kilometers outside both its own assessed advances and earlier Russian assertions.
Among them is Borova, which Gerasimov said Russian forces entered despite being around 10 kilometers beyond ISW’s mapped positions.
Similar discrepancies were noted for Studenok near Lyman and Zaporozhets near Orikhiv, both of which are also positioned well beyond previously indicated Russian advances.
Ongoing strikes
Independent mapping further complicates the claims. A frontline map published on April 20 by pro-Russian milblogger Rybar shows Zaporozhets still under Ukrainian control.
ISW reports it has not observed Russian ground operations in any of the mentioned settlements in recent weeks.
However, it has recorded continued air and artillery strikes targeting these areas over the past two months, suggesting Russian forces remain at a distance rather than in control.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Rybar, Reuters
