Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia may be en route to a Russia without Russians, experts suggests.
A growing body of battlefield data suggests Moscow has inched forward more rapidly this year than last, yet the scale of Russian gains remains modest when compared with the size of Ukraine.
The Economist, drawing on mapping by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports that the front has shifted only incrementally despite constant fighting.
Russian forces tightened their grip in several eastern sectors through 2025, seizing land almost continuously while Ukraine managed only a brief push into Russia’s Kursk region.
According to The Economist’s calculations, 4,562 square kilometres have fallen to Moscow so far this year, compared with 3,734 square kilometres in 2024.
Limited gains
If Moscow intends to secure all remaining parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk still under Ukrainian control,
ISW data cited by The Economist indicate it would need to capture another 20,345 square kilometres. At the current pace, the outlet estimates such a campaign would stretch into mid-2028.
These modest advances come at extraordinary human cost. The Economist estimates that between one and 1.35 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, a toll it says may exceed total U.S. battlefield casualties in the Second World War.
Roughly 1% of Russia’s pre-war male conscription-age population is thought to have died.
Will there be a Russian population in the future?
According to Russiamatters.org, a project aimed at understranding Russia and the U.S.-Russia relationship, Russia’s population peaked in 1994 with 149 million people.
Today, the population has shrunk to 145 million, and forecasts suggest that the decline will continue, bringing the Russian population down to rouchly 120 million before the end of the century.
The Atlantic Council argued in August 2024, that Putin cannot solve the demographic issues of Russia with his policies, and his invasion of Ukraine has only made things worse, as hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Russians in their reproductive age are either being killed in Ukraine or fleeing the country never to return.
The author behind the paper writes in his conclusion, that Russians and their leaders must “must learn to value diversity, or Russia will have an increasingly smaller and older population. Either way, there will be fewer ethnic Russians.”
Steady movement
The magazine notes that Russian troops logged some of their year’s most notable advances in November alone, taking about 690 square kilometres in 30 days.
The timing, The Economist reports, coincided with Moscow’s effort to shape the atmosphere ahead of renewed peace talks. Russian officials declared the capture of Pokrovsk just before a round of negotiations in the capital.
Yet analysts emphasise that progress remains grinding. ISW mapping shows Russia has claimed only about 1.45% of Ukraine’s landmass during the past three years, and none of the country’s major cities.
Even Pokrovsk — the 73rd-largest Ukrainian city before the invasion — has required 14 months of fighting so far, and ISW maintains it has not fully fallen despite Kremlin statements.
Sources: The Economist, Institute for the Study of War, Russiamatters.org, The Atlantic Council
