Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The war in Iran could allow Putin to bolster his war chest.
In January 2026, Reuters reported that Russia’s revenue from oil and gas dropped by 24% in 2025.
This brought the cornerstone of Russian federal income to the lowest level since 2020, and it was seen as a sign that Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas industry were working.
But Putin might have been given the gift of the century when the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 — a gift that could potentially prolong the already more than four-year-long war in Ukraine.
Oil prices soaring
Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury (US codename for the war with Iran), oil prices have soared, and on Monday, March 9, a barrel of oil was more than $100 — the highest since mid-2022.
Part of the reason is that Iran, as a response to the US-Israel attack, announced that it would shut off the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a transit route for about 20% of the world’s oil exports.
All over the globe, petrol prices are going up, and economists expect the rise in oil costs to fuel inflation, as the cost of oil has ripple effects on the entire global supply chain.
Trump eyeing midterms
Even though Donald Trump is busy with Operation Epic Fury, he also has his eyes on the US midterm elections this November.
One of Trump’s promises when he campaigned for a second term as president was to bring down inflation and the cost of living for everyday Americans.
During a campaign rally in Montana in August 2024, Trump said: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Inflation in the US has been curbed, but it has not been eliminated. In January, the year-to-year inflation rate was 2.4%, according to Trading Economics.
And with oil prices going up, Trump risks inflation speeding up in the coming months.
So what is he doing to prevent this from happening?
Weighing lifting sanctions on Russian oil
In October 2025, the US sanctioned major Russian oil companies in order to force the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
This was the latest sanction on the Russian oil industry, with a 2023 agreement between a number of countries to cap the price of Russian oil being one of the biggest implementations.
The idea behind the whole policy is to cut off Putin’s war machine from a main source of funding, but following the surge in oil prices in recent weeks, the US is now considering lifting some sanctions on Russian oil, Trump said on Monday, according to AFP as reported by The Moscow Times.
This could provide the Russian economy with a boost, which will likely be used to intensify operations in Ukraine, as the Kremlin still seems unwilling to compromise on its demands for peace.
But that could hurt the peace efforts in Ukraine
Trump said during his presidential campaign in 2024 that he would end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after taking office again. This has not happened, and the US president is reportedly growing increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress in the peace talks.
Now, he might make it even more difficult to end the war, as he could end up boosting Putin’s war machine because of the war with Iran.
Sources: Reuters, NBC Montana, Trading Economics, US Treasury, The Moscow Times, AFP
