Kathrine Frich
For nearly three years, discounted Russian crude reshaped India’s energy imports.
Now, a sudden shift by the country’s biggest buyer is raising questions about how long that relationship can last.
The change comes after mounting trade pressure from Washington and signs that India is recalibrating its balance between cheap energy and geopolitical costs.
Supply disruption
Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s largest refining complex, does not expect any Russian crude deliveries in January.
According to Reuters, the company has not received a single shipment at its Jamnagar refinery for the past three weeks.
The absence of cargoes marks a sharp change from earlier expectations.
Previous media reports had indicated that three shipments of Russian oil were scheduled to arrive during this period.
If the situation persists, it could significantly reduce India’s overall imports of Russian crude, given Reliance’s dominant role in the country’s refining sector.
From boom to pause
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India emerged as one of Moscow’s largest oil customers.
Indian refiners took advantage of steep discounts as Western sanctions cut Russia off from traditional markets.
Those purchases, however, drew criticism from the United States and European countries, which accused India of indirectly supporting Russia’s war economy.
Despite that pressure, imports continued to rise for much of the conflict.
The current pause suggests that commercial calculations are now being overtaken by political and trade considerations.
Trade pressure
According to Reuters, the shift follows warnings from former U.S. President Donald Trump about raising tariffs on Indian goods.
Washington has already increased tariffs on some Indian exports to as much as 50 percent, citing India’s large-scale purchases of Russian oil.
Trade talks between the two countries are ongoing but have proven difficult.
Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that New Delhi is now seeking to bring Russian crude imports below 1 million barrels per day.
Data cited by Reuters shows that in December, India’s imports of Russian oil fell to their lowest level in three years.
Limited alternatives
In January, only a small group of buyers is expected to continue importing Russian crude.
These include Nayara Energy and state-owned refiners such as Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp.
Nayara, which has Russian links, is likely to remain the largest buyer.
European sanctions have limited alternative supply routes, leaving fewer options for companies willing to handle Russian oil.
Sources: Reuters, WP.
