August M
A new United Nations assessment suggests the future scale of Ukrainian refugee returns will depend heavily on how the war with Russia develops in the coming years.
The research outlines several possible outcomes, ranging from prolonged displacement across Europe to the gradual return of millions if Ukraine regains occupied territory, reports Ukrainska Pravda.
Different outcomes
According to research by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) cited by European Pravda, one scenario examines the effects of a “fragile peace with concessions” reached this year.
Under that model, Russia would maintain de facto control over occupied Ukrainian territories while reconstruction investment in government-controlled areas would continue at moderate or high levels.
The scenario also assumes that the European Union’s Temporary Protection mechanism for Ukrainians would expire in March 2027.
UNHCR estimates that under those conditions, around 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees — roughly 56% of the current refugee population in Europe — would still remain abroad through at least the end of 2029.
War still ongoing
The report also modeled a continuation of the current war without a major settlement or Ukrainian victory.
In that scenario, approximately 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees, representing nearly all those currently displaced in Europe, would remain outside Ukraine until the end of the decade.
A third scenario explored the possibility of Ukraine regaining occupied territories before the end of this year.
Under those assumptions, the number of refugees remaining in Europe could fall significantly, with only about 32% expected to stay abroad by 2029.
EU protection debate
UNHCR stressed that the projections are not forecasts but analytical models designed to show how refugee decisions may shift depending on political and security developments.
The agency said the findings were based on multiple forms of data, including surveys conducted among displaced Ukrainians.
At the same time, European governments are discussing what legal status millions of Ukrainians will have after current EU protections expire.
The Temporary Protection Directive, activated in March 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion, granted Ukrainians the right to live, work, and access services across the European Union without entering traditional asylum systems.
Future uncertainty
The emergency mechanism was initially introduced as a short-term measure but has since been extended several times.
It currently remains valid until 4 March 2027, though EU member states and the European Commission are still debating whether to extend the system again or begin phasing it out.
The discussions could play a major role in shaping future migration patterns as millions of Ukrainians continue weighing whether conditions at home will allow a safe return.
Sources: Ukrainska Pravda, European Pravda, UNHCR
