Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It could also encourage China into moving on Taiwan.
Just days into 2026, global politics were jolted after U.S. President Donald Trump launched an attack on Venezuela and issued new threats against several countries, including the U.S.-aligned territory of Greenland.
And this development menas that Europe is entering a period of profound and unsettling change, according to Georg Riekeles, deputy director of the influential European Policy Centre.
Speaking to Dagbladet, he warns that long-standing assumptions about stability and alliances can no longer be taken for granted.
Dire scenarios
Riekeles fears a chain reaction in 2026. He outlines scenarios in which the United States annexes Greenland in some form, weakening alliances, while Russia entrenches itself on Svalbard. He also warns of potential U.S.–Russian negotiations over territory conducted without European involvement, similar to dynamics seen in Ukraine.
Another risk, he says, is a large-scale Chinese embargo of Taiwan, with severe economic and security consequences for Europe.
When asked whether such forecasts are overly pessimistic, Riekeles replied: “No, unfortunately they are not small things. I fear we are heading there.”
Pressure on Norway
Riekeles has long warned that Russia could exploit a pretext to expand its presence on Svalbard. He suggests that U.S. threats over Greenland could accelerate such moves.
One scenario, he told Dagbladet, could involve a staged “rescue operation” following an alleged accident in the Russian settlement of Barentsburg.
Similar concerns have been raised elsewhere. In an interview with Dagens Næringsliv, FFI chief researcher Bjørn Olav Knutsen said a U.S. annexation of Greenland would threaten not only Svalbard but also Jan Mayen, Bjørnøya and Hopen, underlining the risks to Norwegian territorial security.
A fragile moment
Riekeles argues that Europe is facing a decisive year and cautions against underestimating Washington’s intentions. “We live in a different world now,” he told Dagbladet, adding that dismissing Trump’s words as mere rhetoric is “the most dangerous thought we can have right now”.
With years of experience from the European Commission, Riekeles now focuses on geopolitics, European security and defence. He says the post-war international system is eroding, along with the foundations of Europe’s security architecture.
According to him, Europe’s core goals – security, democracy, prosperity and sustainability – are all under pressure at the same time.
Power over rules
Riekeles says the return of Trump marks a shift where the United States, like China and Russia, increasingly follows a doctrine of “might makes right”. He argues that Trump’s justification for action in Venezuela mirrors Russia’s language in Ukraine.
Regardless of views on Venezuela’s leadership, Riekeles says this signals a new era of spheres of influence and great-power rivalry that puts liberal democracies under intense strain.
He rejects claims that Trump’s statements are merely negotiating tactics, warning that Europe is misreading a fundamentally different U.S. administration. Without strong counterforces, he concludes, the United States and Europe risk drifting apart over core values.
Source: Dagbladet, Reuters, Danish TV 2
