Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
With temperatures as low as ‑40°C (40°F), the Russian winter can be life threatening.
With temperatures as low as ‑40°C (-40°F), the Russian winter can be life threatening.
What is happening?
Ukraine is stepping up attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, aiming to hit the country where it hurts most.
According to Ukrainian political scientist Taras Zagorodny, this strategic shift is beginning to chip away at Russia’s economic foundations, which have long relied on energy exports.
A fragile winter looms for Moscow
In an interview with The Glavred, Zagorodny warns that Russia faces a dangerously uncertain winter.
With energy infrastructure under attack and fuel supplies dwindling, the country could find itself unable to meet domestic energy demands — especially when consumption peaks during the colder months.
The energy collapse scenario
According to the expert, the collapse of Russia’s energy sector could trigger far-reaching consequences.
“Without oil, Russia is simply doomed,” he says, noting that shortages are already becoming visible.
The situation could spiral into a full-blown crisis within months — not years.
Trump’s cold calculation on Russia
Zagorodny suggests that U.S. President Donald Trump is less concerned with Russia’s survival and more focused on American interests.
Specifically, he argues that Trump is looking to dominate the European energy market, and a weakened Russia plays directly into that goal.
The economic time bomb
Russia’s economy, deeply tied to energy exports since the 1960s, is under severe stress.
With key infrastructure under siege and no clear strategy to recover, Zagorodny believes the country is teetering on the edge of an economic cliff.
A civil war waiting to happen?
If Moscow suffers a large-scale energy breakdown during deep winter, Zagorodny warns of chaotic consequences.
He paints a stark picture: “Then half of Russia could rush to plunder Moscow, and that would be a real civil war scenario.”
Ukraine eyes a path to 1991 borders
Zagorodny isn’t surprised by Trump’s recent comments supporting Ukraine’s full territorial restoration.
He’s long believed that Trump offers the best chance for Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders — but it will require relentless pressure on Russia, including more domestic weapons production.
Undermining Russia from within
Ukrainian strategy, according to Zagorodny, should continue to focus on destabilizing Russia from behind the front lines.
Attacks on infrastructure not only erode the economy but also threaten to provoke internal unrest — a potentially game-changing development.
Western green light for energy strikes
Zagrodny points out that the Americans have not told Ukraine to stop targeting the Russian energy infrastructure, implying a tacit approval from Ukraine’s allies.
The strategic objective is clear: exhaust Russia’s ability to wage war by bleeding its energy sector dry.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
