Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
This clearly shows how everything is geopolitically linked.
India has continued reducing its reliance on Russian crude while increasing purchases from the Gulf region and the United States, according to newly released government data.
But a series of recent global developments could make that strategy significantly more expensive for the country in the months ahead.
The Hindu cites the latest preliminary figures from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry showing that imports of Russian crude fell sharply in January 2026. The decline pushed Russia’s share of India’s oil imports below 20 percent for the first time since mid-2022.
India bought about $1.98 billion worth of Russian crude during the month. That marked the lowest level in 44 months and reduced Russia’s share of Indian oil imports to 19.3 percent.
Just two months earlier, Russia accounted for 27.5 percent of India’s oil imports. In May 2025, its share had reached roughly 33 percent.
Trade deal uncertainty
The reduction in Russian oil purchases has unfolded alongside negotiations between New Delhi and Washington over a possible trade arrangement.
The US government had previously linked tariff relief for Indian goods to India scaling back purchases of Russian oil while increasing imports of American energy.
On February 6, US President Donald Trump reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50 percent to 25 percent after removing an earlier penalty imposed in August 2025. He said the decision followed India’s commitment to change its energy sourcing.
“India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, [and] has represented that it will purchase United States energy products from the United States,” Trump said then.
However, the US Supreme Court struck down the legal framework behind those tariffs on February 20, meaning the duties would have been lifted regardless of India’s energy policy.
Rising risks
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are complicating India’s shift away from Russian crude.
Oil prices have risen more than 8 percent to around $80 per barrel after conflict with Iran erupted on February 28. Analysts warn that sustained increases could significantly raise India’s energy costs.
“Every $1 increase in crude raises India’s annual import bill by approximately $2 billion,” JM Financial Services said in a note, according to The Hindu.
The situation is further complicated by risks to Middle Eastern shipping routes. Iran announced on Monday, that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage used for transporting oil from Gulf producers.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the crisis creates additional uncertainty for India, which relies heavily on crude from the Middle East while attempting to reduce Russian imports.
Sources: India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Moody’s Analytics, JM Financial Services, The Hindu
