Is Putin preparing a new “Crimea”? Pro-Russian online campaign raises alarm in NATO state

A stream of messages circulating on Russian-language social media has caught the attention of Estonia’s security agencies.

Officials say the online activity promotes separatist ideas in the eastern border city of Narva. Authorities fear the messaging could be part of a broader effort to unsettle the NATO member state.

According to German newspaper BILD, the campaign has spread across platforms such as Telegram and VKontakte in recent weeks.

The posts encourage the creation of a so-called “Narva People’s Republic” in the city of around 50,000 residents on Estonia’s border with Russia.

Narva is considered particularly sensitive because roughly 90 percent of its population speaks Russian, making it a frequent target for information operations aimed at Russian-speaking communities.

“We are waiting for Russia”

The Estonian anti-propaganda website, Propastop, which is dedicated to counter anti-Estonian propaganda, notes that channels on social media such as Telegram, VKonakte and TikTok are using separatist sympalism, political messaging and military imagery und names like “Narva’s People’s Republic”.

Porpastop highlights a Facebook group with a Russian name, that directly means “We are waiting for Russia”.

The use of the term “People’s Republic” is raising concerns as Russia is using the same term when describing the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia has claimed as Russian territory.

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Calls for action

Since early March, some messages have encouraged followers to spread propaganda materials and prepare for acts of disruption..

Messages circulating online call on residents to declare the “Narva People’s Republic” and defend it by force against the Estonian state, allegedly with backing from Russia’s military.

Slogans appearing in the campaign include “Russians, we are not alone!” and “From Narva to Püssi stretches Russian land.”

Images shared online feature maps and flags of the supposed republic, while masked figures in videos encourage supporters to “act together.”

Authorities push back

Estonian officials says the activity appears to be an influence operation rather than a genuine grassroots movement.

Marta Tuule, spokesperson for Estonia’s security police agency KAPO, told BILD the posts form part of a disinformation effort aimed at undermining stability.

“Such techniques have already been used in Estonia and other countries,” Tuule said. “It is a simple and inexpensive method to create insecurity and intimidate society.”

She also warned: “This is a provocation, and participation in it may have criminal consequences.”

Timing questioned

An Estonian intelligence source told BILD the campaign’s timing may not be accidental.

“It is no coincidence that this campaign is starting now, when the world’s attention is turning toward Iran,” the source said.

The official added: “However, we cannot rule out that it is meant to prepare a Russian incursion similar to what happened in Ukraine in 2014.”

European officials have reported more than 150 suspected hybrid attacks linked to Russia over the past four years, including sabotage, arson and attempted bombings.

Sources: BILD, Estonian Security Police (KAPO), United24Media, Propastop

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation