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It is also the reason the Kremlin is exaggerating battlefield gains.
Russian commanders are projecting momentum along several parts of Ukraine’s frontline, but analysts say the reality on the ground suggests growing strain.
Maintaining attacks in multiple directions is proving costly, raising questions about how long Moscow can sustain its current posture, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests.
Claims and limits
According to the thinktank, military analysts argue that translating limited advances into operational success would require a sharp increase in troops and equipment.
Without that, Russia would need to narrow its focus to one sector, undercutting efforts to portray the entire Ukrainian frontline as close to collapse.
ISW has reported that Russian information campaigns have intensified even as battlefield resources remain finite. Concentrating forces in one area would likely come at the expense of pressure elsewhere.
Pressure in the east
According to ISW, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said on December 13 that Russia’s Eastern Grouping of Forces is struggling to keep offensive momentum near Hulyaipole. He assessed that units operating east and northeast of the town are overstretched and may need reinforcements pulled from other sectors.
Mashovets noted that Russian formations are spread across a wide front, complicating further advances unless commanders reduce the offensive zone or move additional forces.
He said some elements could be redeployed to support the 5th Combined Arms Army, but warned that certain units are unlikely to achieve rapid tactical or operational success.
ISW assessed on December 3 that Russia achieved a limited tactical breakthrough near Hulyaipole in mid-November 2025 after concentrating forces comparable to those used in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya area. That effort involved redeployments from Sumy Oblast and other operational directions, highlighting the trade-offs Moscow faces.
Fortress belt challenge
Looking ahead, analysts say any attempt to attack Ukraine’s long-established defensive line around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk would further strain Russian capacity.
Mashovets assessed that such an effort would require full commitment from several military groupings and that Russia could not afford to get “distracted” elsewhere.
He added that economic pressures and limits in Russia’s defense industry are constraining force generation.
As a result, analysts say Moscow is demanding control of unoccupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson because it lacks the military means to seize them now.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian military analysis
