August M
A new assessment warns that the line between peace and conflict in Europe is becoming increasingly blurred. Analysts say Russia is intensifying actions designed to weaken Western support without triggering open war.
Critical infrastructure across NATO countries is now seen as a primary target.
According to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, cited by Ziare.com and Euromaidan Press, Moscow is escalating what experts describe as a “shadow war” against the West. These operations fall below the threshold of direct military confrontation but are becoming more frequent and complex.
“For Russia, the conflict with NATO already exists,” said analyst Emily Ferris, pointing to a sustained strategy that avoids open escalation while applying pressure.
Key vulnerabilities
The report highlights rail networks as a major weak point, particularly because they are essential for transporting troops and military equipment across Europe.
Logistics hubs, storage facilities and loading points are considered especially exposed. Disruptions in these areas could slow supply chains and increase the cost of supporting Ukraine.
Experts say the aim is not immediate destruction, but gradual erosion of NATO’s operational capacity and unity.
Expanding targets
Recent incidents suggest a widening scope of activity. Infrastructure linked to energy, water systems and aviation has reportedly faced disruptions in several countries, including Germany, Denmark and Sweden.
There have also been cases of GPS interference affecting aircraft, as well as concerns over cargo operations.
In parallel, submarine cables have emerged as another critical vulnerability. Countries such as the United Kingdom and Ireland are monitoring suspicious maritime activity, while NATO has increased patrols in the Baltic Sea.
Covert operations
Attribution remains difficult, which analysts say is a defining feature of hybrid warfare. Some incidents appear disconnected, raising questions about whether this reflects internal fragmentation or a deliberate tactic to create confusion.
Certain operations have been linked to Russia’s GRU unit 29155, known for covert missions and destabilization efforts.
Experts believe Moscow is testing how far it can go without provoking a unified NATO response, while continuing to invest in tools capable of targeting both land and underwater infrastructure.
The findings suggest Europe is facing a prolonged, unconventional conflict with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Sources: Ziare.com, Euromaidan Press, RUSI
