Kathrine Frich
Recent polling suggests a noticeable shift in political mood across the United States.
Support for President Donald Trump appears to be weakening, even in areas that backed him during the last election.
An analysis based on multiple surveys points to growing unease among voters, with implications for Republicans ahead of key midterm contests.
Polling picture
According to an analysis by The Economist, drawing on data from the YouGov research centre, Trump is losing public trust across much of the country.
The magazine used several recent polls to simulate levels of support for the president in individual US states.
The findings suggest that Trump’s approval has declined following a series of controversial statements and policy moves, including comments related to Venezuela and Greenland.
Swing states shift
One of the most striking conclusions is that Trump has lost ground in so-called swing states, areas that are not reliably Republican or Democratic.
The simulation indicates falling support in states such as Alaska, Nebraska and Missouri.
These states supported Trump in the 2024 election, but are now shown to be drifting away from him, according to The Economist’s assessment.
Base narrows
The analysis suggests Trump’s remaining support is increasingly concentrated in states with strong Republican leanings.
Even there, approval levels appear to have dropped sharply.
In South Dakota, for example, more than 18% of respondents approved of Trump’s policies in 2024.
The latest polling puts that figure at just 0.4%, highlighting the scale of the decline reported by The Economist.
Political consequences
Although Trump cannot run for a third presidential term, the magazine warns that his unpopularity could have wider consequences.
Analysts say he may become a liability for Republican candidates in upcoming midterm elections.
With Democrats preparing to challenge for control in Congress, the erosion of Trump’s support in previously friendly territory is seen as a worrying signal for the party.
Sources: The Economist, YouGov, O2.
