Only 10% of Europeans Think Ukraine Will Win Against Russia

Written by Camilla Jessen

Feb.21 - 2024 12:47 PM CET

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Photo: Shutterstock.com
A YouGov poll reveals that only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine will defeat Russia in the ongoing conflict.

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While Europeans continue to show strong support for Ukraine, a recent YouGov poll reveals that only 10% believe Ukraine can achieve a military victory over Russia, nearly two years after the conflict escalated.

This survey is part of a study titled "Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine", conducted in January across 12 EU member states, including major countries like France, Germany, and Italy.

The poll indicates the impact of halted Ukrainian counteroffensives and worries over US policy shifts, including the possibility of Donald Trump's re-election, on public sentiment.

Only 10% of respondents across these nations see a Ukrainian win as likely, with 20% anticipating a Russian victory.

Optimism is slightly higher in Poland, Sweden, and Portugal, but still, fewer than 20% expect a Ukrainian success.

The predominant belief, held by 37% of those surveyed, is that the conflict will conclude with a compromise.

However, opinions on how Europe should respond vary greatly.

In countries like Sweden, Portugal, and Poland, a significant portion of the population supports aiding Ukraine's resistance.

Conversely, in Hungary, Greece, Italy, and Austria, there's a stronger preference for encouraging Kyiv to negotiate a settlement.

In nations like France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, public opinion is more balanced.

The poll also indicates that a significant number of Europeans feel the war in Ukraine has a direct impact on their country and the continent as a whole, more so than conflicts in the Middle East.

Prior surveys, including one ahead of the Munich Security Conference, have shown a decrease in the perception of Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a global threat.

Additionally, another poll identified Great Britain and the United States as the countries Ukrainians view most favorably, with Lithuania, Great Britain, and Canada seen as the most unequivocally friendly nations towards Ukraine.

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