Kathrine Frich
A growing corner of online betting is drawing attention for its unlikely subject.
Punters are staking serious money on a religious event many believers have awaited for centuries. The wagers are now shifting toward the year ahead.
According to the Daily Star, gamblers poured millions into prediction markets focused on whether Jesus Christ would return to Earth.
The bets, while fringe, reflect how far online wagering has expanded beyond sport and politics.
By the end of last year, the question was no longer hypothetical. Platforms were already settling accounts, with some players quietly banking profits.
Money on miracles
In 2025 alone, bettors put about £2.5 million on the idea that Jesus would return before the year ended.
Interest peaked around Easter, when activity on the markets surged.
Those who bet against the event were rewarded. The “No” position generated an annual return of roughly 5.5 percent after the year closed without a second coming.
Despite that outcome, believers kept the implied probability above 3 percent until late December, suggesting steady confidence among a core group of traders.
Why people bet
John Holden, an associate professor at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, said the behaviour was not surprising.
“People buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds,” he said.
The wagers were offered on Polymarket under the title “Will Jesus Christ Return in 2025?”. Rival platform Kalshi hosts similar markets tied to real-world events.
Supporters of the platforms say they provide useful signals, with markets covering elections, conflicts, and even celebrity behaviour online.
Critics push back
Some users were less impressed. One gambling fan complained online: “This is the dumbest market I’ve ever seen.”
Melinda Roth, an associate professor at Washington and Lee University School of Law, was more direct.
“A market like this is distracting. It also diminishes the value of actual prediction markets that provide insights and useful information,” she said.
Still, betting on faith-based outcomes has deep roots. Blaise Pascal famously argued belief in God was rational because the potential reward outweighed the risk.
Sources: Daily Star
