Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Institute for the Study of War assesses the claims are meant to pressure the West into accepting the Russian demands.
A fresh round of Kremlin messaging sought to project stability on Russia’s home front, with President Vladimir Putin telling senior officials that demographic recovery and economic resilience remain within reach.
His remarks, delivered at the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects on December 8, appeared calibrated for both domestic audiences and ongoing international talks.
Putin told attendees that Russia is pushing ahead with efforts to reverse population decline, outlining financial and social incentives for families with children. He acknowledged that the national birth rate “continues to decline,” attributing the trend partly to what he called “external challenges.”
According to the daily update on the war from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the phrase likely alludes to the effects of the war in Ukraine on Russia’s demographic profile.
He announced that governors will soon be assessed on regional birth-rate performance, elevating demographic outcomes to a political metric.
Putin also claimed that attitudes toward having children have improved most sharply in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, areas where Moscow-backed authorities have promoted pro-natalist programs to consolidate control.
Economic claims
Turning to the economy, Putin predicted that Russia’s GDP growth will be “about one percent” by the end of 2025, with inflation falling toward six percent and then stabilizing at four to five percent in 2026.
He said the country is prepared to “increase economic momentum” while keeping unemployment and prices in check.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin echoed the upbeat tone, asserting that GDP has expanded roughly 10 percent over the past three years despite “unprecedented” sanctions.
However, ISW notes that recent policy decisions point to deeper economic weakness than the Kremlin acknowledges,
4 facts say otherwise
It’s impossible to know for sure, how the Russian economy is doing, as the Kremlin is keeping its cards close to outsiders.
We do, however, know four things:
- In the Dec 2. 2025 update on the war, ISW says that the Russian inflation is estimated to be around 20 %.
- Additionally, numbers from the Russian Ministry of Finance stated in late September, that the expected Russian revenue for pil and gas will be down 50 % in 2026 compared to 2025.
- In late November, the Russian Central Bank began selling its physical gold reserves to fund the state budget.
- And Putin has even signed a law increasing the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 20 to 22%.
All in all, not the policies and outlooks, one would expect for a booming economy.
Messaging and negotiations
ISW assesses that Putin’s intensified economic rhetoric ahead of a December 2 US–Russia meeting in Moscow, framing Russia as able to sustain prolonged military operations in Ukraine.
Putin’s December 8 remarks appear aimed at convincing Washington that sanctions will not force concessions in peace talks.
Putin has also avoided linking economic issues to the war, a move observers interpret as an attempt to mask the financial consequences of battlefield losses.
Strategic narrative
ISW has assessed that Russia is pairing optimistic economic messaging with the false assertion that a decisive military victory is inevitable.
Both narratives, ISW argues, are intended to pressure Western governments and Kyiv into accepting unfavorable settlement terms.
However, the organization maintains that Ukraine and its partners can still exploit Russian vulnerabilities to secure meaningful concessions.
Sources: ISW, public Kremlin statements
