Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Gone are the times where guns, tanks, artillery and mines were the most deadly things in war.
The war in Ukraine is increasingly being shaped by technology that operates far from the front lines, and now new intelligence findings suggest that the balance of the conflict is being altered in ways that limit decisive battlefield gains.
According to an assessment published by Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), drones account for between 70 and 80% of casualties (wounded and killed) on both sides of the war in Ukraine.
“This makes the war more dynamic at the tactical level, but reduces the chance of either side making a strategic breakthrough,” the report said in findings published Monday.
Because of this stalemate effect, the authors concluded that Western military aid and political backing remain the decisive factors shaping the war’s outcome.
Production and adaptation
The Latvian intelligence service also pointed to Russian plans to build a drone manufacturing facility in neighboring Belarus, with a projected output of up to 100,000 units per year.
In early December 2025, the Atlantic Council assessed that, since late 2024, the balance in drone warfare has shifted, as Russian forces adapted their tactics and technology. During the first years of the war, drones were crucial in helping Ukrainian forces blunt Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
As we reported yesterday, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently began recruiting university students with computer and engineering skills to strengthen its unmanned systems units.
Beyond the battlefield
The SAB report also referenced disruptive drone incidents near critical infrastructure across Europe last year.
It concluded that, regardless of who carried them out, the events ultimately worked to Russia’s advantage by increasing pressure and uncertainty.
You can read the entire report in English here (opens new tab). The part about drone technology in Ukraine is found on page 8 and 9.
Sources: Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, Atlantic Council, Russian media
