Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The domestically produced missile is said to have a range of 3000 kilometres.
Ukraine’s expanding arsenal of domestically built cruise missiles could reshape the balance of long-range strikes inside Russia, according to a new analyses from The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
The assessment suggests weaknesses far from the battlefield may become decisive.
Rather than focusing only on frontline engagements, the report argues that industrial choke points behind Russia’s air defences could determine how effectively Moscow protects key sites in the years ahead.
Vulnerable production lines
The study published on Dec. 12, titled Disrupting Russian Air Defence Production: Reclaiming the Sky, says Russia’s air defence manufacturing network contains “significant vulnerabilities.”
According to the report, tighter export controls on Western machinery and sanctions on radar-related materials could be paired with strikes on “critical nodes within air defence production that are vulnerable to deliberate attack.”
One focal point is the city of Tula, about 350 kilometres from Ukraine, where production and assembly of the Pantsir air defence system are concentrated.
RUSI notes the region is heavily protected and has so far withstood Ukrainian drone attacks.
Cruise missiles factor
The authors say this calculation could change as Ukraine fields more long-range cruise missiles.
“As Ukraine’s stockpile of indigenous cruise missiles expands, the ability to reach and damage the relevant targets improves,” the report says.
Ukraine is developing several such weapons, including the Flamingo missile, which President Volodymyr Zelensky previously described as “the most successful” missile Ukraine currently has.
The missile is claimed to have a range of 3,000 kilometres and a warhead weighing more than a tonne.
Pantsir systems are primarily used to defend critical infrastructure against long-range drones. RUSI argues that disrupting production could leave these sites exposed to sustained Ukrainian strikes.
Wider strategic impact
“Ukraine could, therefore, mount an operation to saturate the defenses on an approach to Tula before delivering a significant blow to Pantsir production with cruise missiles – ironically resulting in limiting Russia’s ability to defend other targets over the course of 2026,” the report says.
The study adds that these vulnerabilities extend beyond Pantsir, pointing to production risks affecting Russia’s S-400 and S-500 air defence systems, both crucial to its weapons exports.
RUSI also links the issue to NATO security. Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace earlier this year highlighted gaps in Europe’s ability to counter cheap, mass-produced drones.
“A systematic effort to exploit these vulnerabilities could have a disproportionate impact on assisting Ukraine to strike the economic backbone of the Russian war effort and reduce the barriers to NATO airpower,” the report says.
Sources: Royal United Services Institute, Kyiv Independent
