Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the think tank, the Russian army is lacking so much manpower, that the authorities doesn’t care about the financial and societal costs any more.
Russia’s military recruitment drive is falling short as battlefield losses continue to mount, according to Ukrainian and independent Russian reports.
And according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), new figures suggest the gap between enlistment and casualties is widening, raising questions about how Moscow will sustain its war effort.
Losses outpace gains
ISW reports that frontline losses appear to be exceeding recruitment for several consecutive months.
Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said March marked the fourth straight month in which Russian losses surpassed new recruits.
Ukrainian data suggests Russia enlisted about 80,456 troops in the first three months of 2026, while suffering 85,290 casualties over the same period.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said losses in March alone exceeded 35,000, higher than figures released by Ukraine’s General Staff.
Pressure tactics expand
According to the independent outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, at least 12 Russian regions have increased one-time enlistment bonuses by 50 to 80 percent since mid-February.
Authorities have also stepped up indirect mobilization efforts, targeting students and workers.
ISW cites reports that indicate that universities have been instructed to ensure at least two percent of students sign military contracts.
In Ryazan region, businesses have reportedly been ordered to nominate employees for enlistment.
Recruitment shortfall
Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” initiative reported on April 6 that Russia is not recruiting enough contract soldiers to meet its 2026 goal of 409,000 troops.
The initiative said the Russian Ministry of Defense needs to enlist about 1,100 to 1,150 soldiers daily but has averaged only around 940 per day in the first quarter of the year.
It added that recruitment efforts are focused on Russia’s Central and Volga districts, as well as occupied areas of Ukraine.
The data also indicates that roughly 24 percent of recruits have faced criminal investigations or convictions, with nearly 40 percent of those linked to debt.
Sources: Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” initiative, Mozhem Obyasnit, Ukrainian General Staff, statements by Volodymyr Zelensky
