August M
Russia’s war effort in Ukraine is grinding forward at a pace unseen in modern warfare, according to a new Western assessment that challenges Moscow’s claims of steady battlefield momentum.
The findings suggest that despite enormous losses, Russian forces are achieving only marginal territorial gains while locking the country into long-term military and economic decline.
According to the Kyiv Post, a report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says Russia’s offensive is advancing at the slowest rate recorded for any army in the past 100 years.
Meters, not breakthroughs
CSIS found that since early 2024, Russian troops have advanced between just 15 and 70 meters per day in their main offensive operations.
On the eastern front, the push toward Chasiv Yar has averaged about 15 meters daily since February 2024, leaving the city only partially captured after nearly two years of fighting.
The advance toward Kupyansk, launched in November 2024, has moved at roughly 23 meters per day, while the offensive against Pokrovsk has progressed at around 70 meters per day following the costly seizure of Avdiivka.
By comparison, CSIS noted that French forces advanced about 80 meters per day during World War I’s Battle of the Somme, while US troops moved more than 400 meters per day at Belleau Wood in 1918.
Heavy losses, limited gains
Despite the slow progress, Russian casualties have been immense. CSIS estimates that since February 2022, Russia has suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 killed.
Territorial gains have remained modest. Russia captured about 0.6% of Ukraine’s territory in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, bringing total gains since early 2024 to less than 1.5%.
Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of eastern regions seized before the full-scale invasion. CSIS said roughly 75,000 square kilometers were captured during the war itself.
“These results fall decisively short of Moscow’s goal to militarily conquer Ukraine,” the report said.
War of attrition
CSIS said Russia shifted to a strategy of attrition after failing to achieve a rapid victory in 2022.
The approach relies on mass infantry assaults, artillery, glide bombs and drones to wear down Ukrainian defenses, while accepting extreme losses. Despite tactical adaptations, the report said Russia has failed to achieve operational breakthroughs.
Economic strain deepens
Beyond the battlefield, CSIS warned that the war is exposing structural weaknesses in Russia’s economy.
Manufacturing contracted for much of 2025, growth slowed to 0.6%, inflation stayed high and labor shortages intensified. Russia has fallen further behind in advanced technologies and is increasingly dependent on China for trade and critical components.
CSIS concluded that while sanctions have not collapsed Russia’s economy, the war is locking the country into long-term stagnation and rising costs.
Sources: Kyiv Post, CSIS
