August M
Russia has announced plans to increase the size of its armed forces, but analysts say the move is more about long-term military planning than immediate battlefield impact.
Experts say the figures outlined by the Kremlin reflect ambitions for future force levels rather than the number of troops currently fighting in Ukraine, reports the Kyiv Independent.
New decree
According to the Kyiv Independent, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 4 increasing the potential size of the country’s armed forces.
The document sets the maximum number of military personnel at 2,391,770, including 1,502,640 active-duty service members.
The change represents only a small increase of 2,640 additional active troops compared with the previous figure.
Analysts say the decree signals Moscow’s intention to gradually expand its military structure.
Long-term reforms
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the numbers should be viewed as a future target rather than a reflection of current forces.
“These numbers are largely aspirational,” she told the Kyiv Independent.
“They represent what the Kremlin wants the Russian standing army to look like in the long term rather than the current force composition fighting in Ukraine.”
The expansion forms part of wider military reforms announced in 2022 by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Frontline reality
Despite the planned expansion, experts say the decree is unlikely to dramatically change conditions on the battlefield in the near future.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told Sky News in December 2025 that more than 710,000 Russian troops were deployed along the front lines in Ukraine.
By comparison, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine’s armed forces numbered about 880,000 soldiers as of January 2025.
Stepanenko noted that the large figures announced by Moscow do not mean those troops could suddenly appear in Ukraine.
Recruitment challenges
Russia continues to rely heavily on contract soldiers who volunteer in exchange for large financial bonuses.
The country also holds conscription campaigns twice each year, requiring eligible men to serve for one year, though by law conscripts cannot be deployed abroad.
Analysts say maintaining manpower without triggering another large-scale mobilization remains a key concern for the Kremlin after political backlash following the 2022 draft.
According to John Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Russia’s force in Ukraine has grown by more than 400,000 troops since 2022, partly due to the integration of proxy forces from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
However, heavy battlefield losses have slowed broader restructuring efforts.
Hardie said that in some periods as many as 90 percent of new recruits have been needed simply to replace casualties.
Sources: Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Sky News
