August M
Nearly four years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, new estimates suggest the human cost of the conflict is approaching levels rarely seen in modern warfare. The figures point to extraordinary losses on both sides, even as the frontlines shift only marginally.
The findings were reported by The Guardian, citing a new study by a Washington-based thinktank.
Stark estimates
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the combined number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded or missing could reach almost 2 million by this spring.
The thinktank estimates that Russia has suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths. Ukrainian losses are put at close to 600,000 troops killed, wounded or missing.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publishes full casualty data, treating such figures as state secrets since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Kremlin response
The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS report on Wednesday, calling it “not credible” and insisting that only the Russian defence ministry has the authority to release official casualty figures.
CSIS said its estimates were based on interviews with western and Ukrainian officials, as well as data compiled by the independent Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service.
The Guardian notes that the figures cannot be independently verified but align with other western assessments of heavy losses.
Historical context
By historical standards, the report describes the casualties as exceptional. CSIS said Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine were “more than 17 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s.”
They were also estimated to be 11 times higher than losses in Russia’s Chechen wars and more than five times greater than all Russian and Soviet conflicts combined since the second world war.
The report suggests Russian losses exceed Ukrainian casualties by roughly two-to-one or more.
Strain on both sides
Despite higher Russian losses, the study paints a bleak picture for Ukraine, whose smaller population limits its ability to absorb prolonged casualties.
Moscow has relied on high pay and expanded benefits to attract recruits, including foreign nationals. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struggled to replenish depleted units, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy resisting calls to lower the mobilisation age below 25.
Limited gains
CSIS found that Russia’s territorial advances have remained modest. Since 2024, Russian forces have advanced between 15 and 70 metres a day during major offensives.
According to Ukraine’s DeepState monitoring group, Russian troops captured 152 square kilometres between 1 and 25 January, the slowest pace since March last year. Recent peace talks in Abu Dhabi also failed to produce a breakthrough.
Sources: The Guardian, CSIS, Mediazona, BBC Russian Service
