August M
Tucked between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova sits outside NATOc and the EU, occupying a fragile position on Europe’s eastern edge.
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, its geography and unresolved internal divisions are increasingly being viewed as strategic vulnerabilities.
A fragile position
Moldova is a former Soviet republic that has sought closer ties with Western institutions, but without the security guarantees enjoyed by many of its neighbours.
Unlike NATO members in the region, the country has no collective defence backing. Its internal politics and security are further complicated by the breakaway territory of Transnistria, which has operated outside central government control for more than three decades.
The narrow strip of land, wedged between Moldova and Ukraine, has long been supported by Moscow, reports The Express.
A frozen conflict
Transnistria declared independence from Moldova in 1990, though it has never been internationally recognised as a state.
Russia maintains political, economic and military influence there, including a base hosting around 1,500 Russian troops. Roughly 200,000 of the region’s half a million residents hold Russian citizenship, often alongside Moldovan passports.
In a 2006 referendum, more than 95% of voters backed joining Russia, but the result was dismissed internationally.
Echoes of Ukraine
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, observers have noted similarities between Transnistria and pro-Moscow separatist movements in eastern Ukraine prior to 2022.
Those parallels have fuelled concerns that Moscow could use the region as leverage if fighting in Ukraine were to pause or end.
With NATO countries boosting defence spending and warning of future threats, attention has increasingly turned to areas lying outside the alliance’s protection.
Expert warning
Against this backdrop, Tim Wilsey, a former diplomat and professor at King’s College London, has warned that Russia’s ambitions are unlikely to stop with Ukraine.
“I don’t think for a moment that Putin’s project is finished,” Wilsey said, arguing that any ceasefire would give Moscow time to rebuild.
Speaking to The Sun, he said Vladimir Putin “will go for Moldova” once hostilities in Ukraine subside, describing the Russian military as currently in a “dreadful state” but capable of recovery within about three years.
Beyond tanks
Wilsey also predicted increased political interference and covert actions, including “sabotage, assassination, use of drones over airports”.
He pointed to other potential flashpoints, including Estonia’s border town of Narva, which has a large Russian-speaking population.
Referring to doubts over Washington’s long-term commitment to NATO, he added: “Do we really believe that the United States is going to go to war for one town in Estonia? I’m not sure I do anymore.”
Sources: The Express, The Sun
