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The Ukrainian forces are developing their capabilities for operational planning, and long-term preparation is now showing its value.
George Barros, a conflict analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider that Ukraine is now gaining more ground against Russian forces.
“Notably, in February, the Ukrainians liberated more territory in the theater than the Russians seized (…) This is new,” Barros said, noting it was the first time this had happened since Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in March that Ukrainian forces had retaken more land over the previous month than Russia had captured, adding that more than 177 square miles had been reclaimed in 2025.
And all in all, the momentum on the battlefield seems to be shifting in favor of Ukraine.
Was Starlink the turning point?
Some observers have pointed to reduced Russian access to Starlink satellite internet as a key factor.
However, Barros dismissed this as incomplete, noting that Elon Musk shutting down Starlink access for Russian forces might have been an accelerant of the shifting momentum, but not the driver.
Instead, he believes Ukraine’s recent gains reflect long-term preparation, improved coordination, and sustained pressure on Russian forces.
Deeper capability for operational planning
Barros attributed the shift to improved Ukrainian planning and coordination.
Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian logistics and air defenses, weakening positions ahead of ground assaults, and Ukrainian forces are developing deeper capabilities for operational planning, Barros suggests.
Slowing Russia
ISW analysts told Business Insider that the pace of Russia’s advance has slowed significantly.
Putin’s forces are now gaining just over one square mile per day.
This suggests a fivefold slowdown compared to 2024.
Ukraine, by contrast, has increased its rate of advance by more than 1.8 square miles per day, and the numbers don’t tell the full story of how Ukrainian defenses are disrupting Russian operations and gaining momentum.
Sources: Business Insider, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
