Kathrine Frich
Oil is the backbone of Russia’s economy and the main source of funding for its war in Ukraine.
Revenues from energy exports keep the Kremlin’s budget afloat and sustain Moscow’s ability to wage a prolonged conflict.
That is why any shift by major buyers carries consequences far beyond the oil market itself.
Trump’s announcement
US President Donald Trump said the United States would cut tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 18%, announcing that New Delhi would stop buying Russian oil and instead source crude from the US and Venezuela.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi thanked Trump on the X platform for the tariff reduction, but did not mention oil purchases.
Moody’s has previously noted that the US is India’s largest export market. From January to November 2025, Indian exports to the US rose 15.88% year on year to $85.5 billion, while imports from the US reached about $46 billion.
A policy shift
If confirmed, ending Russian oil imports would mark a major change for India since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
During that period, New Delhi sharply increased purchases of discounted Russian crude.
The Moscow Times reported that in December the price of a barrel of Urals oil fell below $35.
India became Russia’s second-largest oil buyer after China, with the two countries accounting for 85% of Russian exports. Turkey and the EU followed with about 6%.
Limits in practice
Reuters, citing an anonymous source, reported there is currently no realistic way to halt Russian oil imports immediately. Instead, volumes are expected to fall gradually.
According to the report, Indian refineries would need time to complete existing transactions, and the government has not yet instructed them to stop purchases altogether.
NDTV, citing Kpler data, said India was still importing around 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian oil even after US tariff pressure increased.
Watching the data
Dr Szymon Kardaś of the Centre for Eastern Studies told money.pl that Trump’s claims would need to be verified by actual trade flows.
“Let’s wait for a signal from India, as there’s no official confirmation of the changes Trump has announced,” he said.
He noted that Argus Media data showed Indian imports of ESPO crude fell in December 2025, while shipments to China increased slightly.
China’s leverage
Analysts say any reduction in Indian demand would strengthen China’s hand. Marcin Przychodniak of the Polish Institute of International Affairs said cheaper Russian raw materials are crucial for Beijing.
A halt by India would give China more leverage in price negotiations, he said, deepening Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.
Kardaś added that Russia’s break with Europe had already locked it into reliance on China and India, limiting its strategic options.
Technical barriers
Experts caution that switching suppliers is not straightforward. Dr Przemysław Zaleski of the Pulaski Foundation said US sweet crude differs significantly from Russia’s sulfur-heavy Urals blend.
Refineries would need technological upgrades, a process that could take months, he said.
That makes a complete and rapid exit from Russian oil economically and technically challenging for India.
Sources: Reuters, The Moscow Times, NDTV, Argus Media, money.pl
