Kathrine Frich
The future of the world’s last major nuclear arms control agreement is increasingly uncertain.
Comments from Donald Trump have renewed fears that long-standing limits on strategic weapons could soon disappear.
The issue carries global implications, as Washington and Moscow control the vast majority of the world’s nuclear arsenal.
Treaty at risk
Donald Trump has indicated he is prepared to let the New START treaty between the United States and Russia lapse when it expires on February 5.
According to Reuters, the former US president dismissed concerns about the deadline in an interview with The New York Times.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 agreement. “We will make a better deal.”
The New START treaty caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems held by both countries.
Fears of escalation
Arms control experts warn that allowing the treaty to expire without replacement could trigger a new phase of nuclear competition.
They fear the US and Russia would be free to deploy warheads beyond existing limits, further weakening the global arms control framework.
“There are many supporters in the Trump administration … who want exactly this,” said Thomas Countryman, a former senior State Department arms control official who now chairs the Arms Control Association.
Advocates argue that the loss of New START would remove the last remaining guardrails between the two nuclear superpowers.
Moscow’s proposal
The White House did not respond to questions about whether Trump would accept an offer made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Moscow proposed that both sides voluntarily maintain the treaty’s limits even after it expires, Reuters reported.
Trump’s stance appears to contrast with remarks he made in July, when he said he would like to preserve the treaty’s limits beyond its expiration.
Limits and history
Under New START, the US and Russia are restricted to deploying no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads on 700 delivery vehicles, including missiles, submarines and bombers.
The treaty cannot be extended again. It was already prolonged once, in 2021, when Putin and then-US President Joe Biden agreed to a five-year extension.
Trump said any successor agreement should include China, which he described as having the fastest-growing nuclear force in the world.
“You probably want to involve other actors,” he told The New York Times.
Beijing has repeatedly rejected participation, arguing that US and Russian arsenals far exceed its own.
A recent Pentagon report said China has installed more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles in newly built silos.
Sources: Reuters, The New York Times, Digi24.
