August M
Shifts in regional alliances are reshaping the balance of power across Eurasia.
New intelligence assessments suggest Moscow’s role is diminishing in key neighbouring areas.
According to Ukrinform, citing Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU), Russia is increasingly losing its status as a stabilising force in the Trans-Caspian region.
The agency said that during meetings in April 2026, members of the Organization of Turkic States acknowledged that Moscow could no longer be relied upon as a guarantor of security.
Regional shift
“In April 2026, representatives of the Organization of Turkic States – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan – recorded what has long been discussed in the region: Moscow is no longer a guarantor of stability. The parties agreed to rely solely on their own capabilities,” the intelligence service stated.
The report points to a broader trend of regional actors strengthening cooperation independently of Russia.
At the same time, new transport links are altering economic dynamics across the region.
Trade routes grow
FISU highlighted the expansion of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor, which connects Asia and Europe while bypassing Russian territory.
According to the agency, the route is steadily gaining importance and could eventually reduce Russia’s role as a key transit hub.
Officials believe that once fully operational, the corridor may significantly weaken Moscow’s logistical influence.
Armenia’s pivot
The report also identifies Armenia as a key example of changing alliances.
“The results of the latest Armenia–Russia summit confirmed that Armenians no longer view Russia as either a strategic partner or a security guarantor. Yerevan is consistently turning toward Türkiye, a more stable and predictable actor,” the agency stated.
This shift reflects growing dissatisfaction with Moscow’s role in regional security.
Kremlin response
FISU said Russia has responded with pressure measures, including threats to increase gas prices.
“The response was unexpectedly firm: Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan publicly promised to begin the process of withdrawing from the CSTO and the EAEU. The threat did not work,” the statement said.
The agency added that Russia also revoked a licence for a major Armenian brandy distributor, a move it described as counterproductive.
“Effectively, Moscow has deprived its own citizens of access to one of the world’s most well-known alcohol brands,” FISU noted.
Changing landscape
According to Ukrinform, Armenia has since accelerated efforts to deepen ties with regional partners, particularly Türkiye.
The developments suggest a broader geopolitical realignment, with countries in the Trans-Caspian region seeking greater independence from Russian influence.
Sources: Ukrinform, Ukraine Foreign Intelligence Service
