Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The current events on the battlefield could very well determine how the next six months will play out in Ukraine.
Ukrainian troops are mounting a series of counterattacks along several fronts in southern Ukraine, challenging Russian positions in Zaporizhia Oblast — and they are succeeding.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports in its March 9 update on the war that the renewed pressure is slowing Moscow’s advance and could complicate Russia’s wider offensive plans expected later this year.
ISW notes that Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets claims Ukrainian units are pushing back Russian forces near several settlements south of Zaporizhzhia City. His March 9 assessment said the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces has “virtually halted” its progress around the key front near Orikhiv.
Shifting battlefield momentum
Mashovets reported that Ukrainian counterattacks toward Richne and Prymorske forced small Russian units to retreat from parts of northern and central Prymorske.
ISW reports that Ukrainian forces also regained ground near Novoyakolivka and northern Lukyanivske, both southeast of Zaporizhzhia City, while Russian troops were pushed further south from positions near Pavlivka.
At the same time, Russian troops have tried to advance near Orikhiv, launching attacks near Bilohirya and Mala Tokmachka to the southeast, as well as Robotyne and Danylivka to the south. Mashovets said these assaults have not achieved meaningful gains.
Wider counteroffensive pressure
ISW notes that Ukrainian forces began limited counterattacks in western Zaporizhia in February, operations that continued into early March.
Those actions now appear to complement Ukrainian efforts against Russian units from the 5th Combined Arms Army operating further east in Zaporizhia and near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
According to ISW, Mashovets previously reported that Ukrainian troops launched counterattacks near Lukyanivske in February after Russian forces advanced roughly 1.5 kilometers in the area.
Both Russian and Ukrainian sources have indicated increased Ukrainian ground assaults and drone activity south of Zaporizhzhia City since mid-February.
Why it is important
Military analysts, including ISW, expect Russia to be preparing an offensive campaign for the spring and summer of 2026.
By conducting successful counterattacks, Ukrainian forces may be able to disrupt Russian preparations for the campaign, meaning Russia will either have to scrap the plans completely (unlikely) or launch a far less effective offensive campaign.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, reporting by Kostyantyn Mashovets.
