Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Not even the Russian demand of Donetsk would satisfy the Kremlin.
Few, if any, know what is going on in the mind of Vladimir Putin.
The war in Ukraine will soon have lasted for four years, but even though the fighting has turned into a humiliating Russian spectacle with more than 1.2 million casualties on the Russian side, an economy on the ropes, and burned diplomatic bridges all over the world, the fighting continues.
And it is unlikely to end any time soon, if Western intelligence officials read the room correctly.
Not interested in a deal
In an article by Reuters, published February 19, 2026, the heads of five European intelligence agencies suggest that Moscow’s ambitions in Ukraine stretch far beyond land gains on the battlefield.
According to the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the Kremlin is not seeking a swift end to the conflict and remains focused on reshaping Ukraine’s political future.
The assessments suggest that any settlement limited to territorial concessions would fall short of Russia’s broader objectives.
Donetsk is not enough
Reuters reported that even if Ukraine were to surrender the remainder of the Donetsk region, it would not satisfy the Kremlin’s push to unseat Ukraine’s elected leadership.
The intelligence officials indicated that further demands would likely follow.
The findings align with previous assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has long argued that Putin’s objectives extend beyond eastern Ukraine and involve fundamental changes to Europe’s security order.
Broader strategic goals
The think tank suggests that Moscow’s ambitions include blocking Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and limiting the country’s military capacity to prevent future resistance.
ISW has also assessed that the Kremlin seeks a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
Putin has repeatedly framed the conflict as part of a wider confrontation with NATO, calling for what amounts to a restructuring of the European security architecture. Western officials view these demands as incompatible with Ukraine’s sovereignty.
On February 18, senior Russian officials reiterated that any agreement must meet Moscow’s full list of conditions.
Lavrov’s remarks
In an interview with Saudi state-owned broadcaster Al-Arabiya, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to what he described as an “Alaska understanding” discussed in recent Geneva talks with US officials. He suggested the alleged agreement addressed the “root causes” of the war.
Lavrov repeated Moscow’s claims that Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church were central grievances. He also called for international recognition of Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions in 2022.
Lavrov described Ukraine as the “main obstacle” to peace since 2014 and accused the European Union of undermining the Minsk agreements, while criticizing Western security guarantees for Kyiv as a threat to Russia.
Western intelligence officials say such statements reinforce their assessment that the Kremlin seeks political control in Kyiv, not merely territorial adjustments.
Sources: Reuters, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
